The infamous prediction that came true
Introduction
There have been
many times in history that we can research in which an infamous prediction materialized.
Many times, predictions will usually sound so ridiculous that they are easily
forgotten or just written off as nonsense. It was a fiction writer by the name
of Arthur Clarke that said: "If by
some miracle, a prophet could describe the future exactly as it was going to
take place, his predictions would so sound so far-fetched, so absurd, that
everyone would laugh him to scorn"( Camarena, 2019). In this
post, the researcher has selected one infamous prediction that came true and discussed
the forces that had an impact on its success.
Forecasting
and predictions in a business innovation
What business wouldn’t
want the ability to predict the future. Since its nearly if possible, to
predict the future, organizations must rely on some type of forecasting to help
make decisions as it relates to the future. Whether it’s
a simple process or a decision that must be made, you can bet that forecasting
is somewhere in the mix. The only way a company can even begin to predict future
outcomes is through forecasting. Business forecasting is a method used to help
predict the future, and the future is well-defined by whatever the economic
conditions are at that time. Business forecasting requires a combination of information
that is collected based on past conditions and the company’s current economic
condition which in turn can be used to predict the future conditions (Armstrong,
2001).
The infamous prediction that
came true
The prediction that was
selected for this discussion was first made by Nikola Tesla in 1909, when he predicted
that “It will soon be possible to transmit wireless messages all over the world
so simply that any individual can carry and operate his own apparatus” (Tesla, 1909). In an interview with the New York Times, Tesla
had predicted that what we know today as the cell phone would be invented. He described
how the cell phone would be used in 1926 and is well known as the Nostradamus
of science.
First Force
The first force that the
researcher has identified that impacted the success of this infamous prediction
was the drive to create wireless power transfer. Tesla conducted a significant
amount of experiments related to electricity and energy. It was his development
of the alternating current (AC) system that we use today that made the long-distance
transfer of electricity possible. Since wireless communications also use an
electrical type currently, this was ideal for his predictions related to
wireless communication transfer.
Second force
The second force that the
researcher has identified that impacted the success of this infamous prediction
was the original telephony equipment and the desire to develop newer telegraphy
that was wireless (Camarena, 2019). The old telegraph system required a wired
connection to be transferred, which was slow because the signal also had to be
relayed. Developing a system where the signal was transmitted by air instead of
wire was motivation itself because there would have been more cost-effective.
Conclusion
There have been many
infamous predictions that have materialized into the devices that we use every day
such as the cell phone. In 1909, Nikola Tesla nearly 8 decades
before the cell phone would be created, made a prediction that this type of
technology would one day be possible (Camarena, 2019).
Whether it’s a simple process or a decision that must be made, you see how
forecasting has been somewhere in the mix throughout history. Infamous predictions
will continue to be made and become reality either by the need for innovation or
some other driving force.
References
doi:10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_20
Camarena,
M. E. (2019). Predictions of Science Fiction That
Came True. Switzerland: Springer.
doi:10.1007
Tesla,
N. (1909). Wireless of the future. Popular Mechanics,
476-477.
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